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COVID on campus: an update

Philosopher Gregory Pence (Alabama/Birmingham) kindly shared this list of universities with the biggest outbreaks of COVID on campus.  What they have in common is that they are all large, mostly state schools, most of which have big fraternity/sorority scenes.  (One surprise on the list is BYU, which is large, but is an alcohol-free campus, which one would have expected to contribute to more sensible behavior by students.)   But these schools are the outliers, as even the NYT data reveals, despite their best journalistic effort to emphasize the negative:

More than 35,000 cases [COVID] cases have been identified since early October.

Though some colleges moved all their fall classes online, many campuses remained open even as positive tests accumulated by the hundreds or thousands. Of more than 1,700 institutions surveyed by The Times, more than 50 reported at least 1,000 cases over the course of the pandemic. More than 375 colleges have reported at least 100 cases.

Translated into non-hysterical English:  3% of universities account for about a third of all the cases on campuses, and one-quarter of the schools account for almost all the cases–meaning about 70% of colleges and universities are doing quite well.  Considering that COVID is spreading out of control in huge parts of the country, colleges are performing admirably overall.

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3 responses to “COVID on campus: an update”

  1. This is some of the better news I’ve read lately. Thanks, Brian!
    Here in the Boston area, I’m not aware of major outbreaks at our many colleges and universities. However, government and health officials seem to agree that the return of college students is a major driver of the steady uptick in cases regionally and statewide. I wonder if there is any solid research/analysis on this…

  2. Here at Florida State, after an initial surge of cases when students first arrived we have been below 2.5% test positivity for the past four weeks, and at 1.14% and 1.33% the weeks of October 4-10 and 11-17, respectively. This is with students, faculty, and staff being randomly selected for testing.

  3. The Times and about everyone else also fail to understand counterfactuals. Perhaps about the same number of cases would have occurred even if campus had not reopened. Many if not most of the students would simply have contracted COVID elsewhere. In fact, I wouldn't be so surprised if students would have been equally if not more likely to contract COVID off campus — staying home with parents and siblings, taking public transportation to go to work, working 12-hour shifts in restaurants or grocery stores, socializing with their friends, and so on. Of course, counterfactuals are always hard to evaluate, but for the exact same reason that they are difficult it should be difficult to make causal attributions. Apparently news outlets find that very easy.

    At New College we've only had four or five confirmed cases since reopening late August. We test randomly, I think, at least 10% of the campus community every week and then trace and isolate cases. It works rather well because we're so small. But still.

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