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Which philosophers will be read in 100 years?

I was struck by philosopher Chris Bertram’s remark, regarding Davidson’s death, that “a succession of philosophical giants” have died recently, mentioning David Lewis, John Rawls, Robert Nozick, and Bernard Williams.

The death of David Lewis (1941-2001) was the first memorial notice posted on the Update Service, back on October 16, 2001. Since then the following memorial notices for eminent senior philosophers have appeared (in this order):

Robert Nozick (1938-2002)
R.M. Hare (1919-2002)
Jerrold Katz (1932-2002)
Hans-Georg Gadamer (1900-2002)
Rogers Albritton (1924-2002)
Gordon Baker (1938-2002)
Richard Jeffrey (1926-2002)
John Rawls (1921-2002)
Paul Ziff (1920-2003)
Bernard Williams (1929-2003)
Georg Henrik von Wright (1916-2003)
Donald Davidson (1917-2003)
James Rachels (1941-2003)

Of course, shortly before I began posting memorial notices, W.V.O. Quine died as well.

All these philosophers are known to any student of the subject, and certainly Professor Bertram’s list of the “giants” is not implausible, even if some might wonder: why not von Wright? Hare? Gadamer? Yet Professor Bertram’s comments raise a more general issue, namely, who among philosophers of the 20th-century, including those recently lost to us, will students of philosophy still be reading at the end of the 21st-century, not simply for reasons of historical interest, but because they are really “giants”?

Consider, for example, that around mid-20th-century, the Harvard Philosophy Department, then clearly the dominant department in the U.S., included on its faculty (not all at the same time) a young W.V.O. Quine, a much older C.I. Lewis, as well as Donald Williams, Ralph Barton Perry, John Wild, William Ernest Hocking, Raphael Demos.

Just a half-century later, almost all these (at the time) eminent and widely respected figures are largely forgotten. Quine, of coures, is not, and C.I. Lewis is still read. Perry, the dominant figure in value theory mid-century, is almost never discussed any longer (though he was still important enough in the 1950s that the political and legal philosopher Joel Feinberg wrote his dissertation on him!). Occasionally, a paper in metaphysics by Williams turns up, but little more.

If in the space of 50 years, most of the philosophers at the leading department in the nation can disappear in to oblivion, what does that bode for today’s great figures? Perry, Wild, Hocking, Demos, to be sure, had the misfortune to precede the rise of “analytic” philosophy, but with the subsequent demise of “analytic” philosophy as a substantive research program (thanks to Quine, among others), who is to say that philosophical fashions may not change in radical ways again?

Since the 1960s, of course, the dramatic expansion of the size of the academy and the increasing professionalization of all fields has likely had a stabilizing effect on philosophical fashions, since, as Dennett remarks in his famous essay on “Higher Order Truths about Chmess,” “a self-supporting community of experts” can sustain interest in trivial problems (and in non-trivial ones, too).

Thomas Nagel, in his 1995 collection Other Minds, makes the following pertinent observations:

“Which philosophical writings of this century will be of more than historical interest in another hundred years? Near the end of the twentieth century, very few philosophers of the nineteenth are much read: Peirce and Frege, Mill, Bentham, and Sidgwick, Hegel, Nietzsche, and perhaps Schopenhauer. [Marx is, bizarrely omitted–BL.] What will a comparable list look like next time around? But then, who would have bet on Peirce, Frege, or Nietzsche in 1894? Greatness is rare and the fourth century B.C. and the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries A.D. remain, in my view, unrivaled. The strongest recent candidate for immortality is Wittgenstein; he certainly identified a new set of problems, though his response to them is still poorly understood and very difficult to evaluate. Russell, Husserl, Sartre, and Carnap will continue to be familiar names for a while, and so, unfortunately, will Heidegger. Of those who have flourished in the second half of this century, however, it is difficult to guess who will actually be read more than a hundred years from now. I would bet on Rawls and perhaps Nozick, partly because of the linear character of the history of Western political thought and its need for exemplary figures, but I have no confidence that the most influential recent work in metaphysics, epistemology, and philosophy of language will survive. But perhaps it is the wrong question; perhaps it is possible to contribute greatly to the developent of philosophy within writing a classic.”

So Nagel thinks only Rawls and maybe Nozick–not apparently Quine, or Kripke, or Lewis, or Davidson. Rawls seems a good bet, insofar as the problems he address seem bound to be of continuing interest, and his way of addressing them fits so brilliantly in to a reasonably well-established canon of historical figures. Perhaps Nozick, too, will survive as a kind of footnote to this debate, and like Donald Williams, I expect some of his fruitful ideas and pithy formulations in epistemology and other areas will likely command some attention for another generation (if not a century from now). But ultimately much of what made Nozick an invaluable presence in the Harvard Philosophy Department–his breadth of interests, his iconoclasm–will cost him in terms of long-term interest, once his personal influence fades: namely, that he was not a systematic philosopher, with distinctive philosophical doctrines.

Quine and Kripke are bound to be read, insofar as 20th-century analytical philosophy remains at least a topic of historical interest. (Just as the professionalization of philosophy–and the endless need for doctoral students to find new topics–has brought us a large volume of scholarship on obscure figures of dubious philosophical merit associated with, e.g., 19th-century German Idealism and Neo-Kantianism, so too it is hard to imagine that there won’t be for a long time scholarship on the central figures of 20th-century analytical philosophy, like Russell, Carnap, Quine, and Kripke.) The fact that Frege has fared better after a century than he did in his lifetime is also some indication that Quine and Kripke are likely to remain alive as philosophical figures, not simply historical ones, since they are party to a way of thinking about philosophy that Frege helped initiated, and which has survived sufficiently well a century later to maintain Frege’s status as a must-read figure.

For a somewhat different perspective, consider the philosophers deemed worthy of a volume in the well-known Library of Living Philosophers book series:

1939: John Dewey
1940: George Santayana
1941: Alfred North Whitehead
1942: G.E. Moore
1944: Bertrand Russell
1949: Ernst Cassirer
1952: Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan
1957: Karl Jaspers
1959: C.D. Broad
1963: Rudolf Carnap
1967: Martin Buber
1968: C.I. Lewis
1974: Karl Popper
1980: Brand Blanshard
1981: Jean-Paul Sartre
1984: Gabriel Marcel
1986: W.V.O. Quine
1989: Georg Henrik von Wright
1991: Charles Hartshorne
1992: A.J. Ayer
1995: Paul Ricoeur
1995: Paul Weiss
1997: Hans-Georg Gadamer
1997: Roderick M. Chisholm
1998: P.F. Strawson
1999: Donald Davidson
2001: Seyyed Hossein Nasr
2002: Marjorie Grene
Forthcoming volumes on Arthur Danto, Michael Dummett, Jaakko Hintikka, Hilary Putnam, and Richard Rorty.

Putting aside the non-Western figures, or those included for reasons of “diversity,” one may surely fairly observe that, as philosophers, Santayana, Weiss, Blandshard, Hartshorne, Broad, and Ayer have not fared well. Some, like Santayana again, but also Cassirer, Sartre, and perhaps Marcel, survive because of substantial interest among those outside philosophy. Danto seems an odd choice–putting aside his interesting art criticism work in The Nation–what philosophical work will he be remembered for? Putnam has changed his views more times than most men change suits, so whether he is read will be entirely a function of whether, e.g., the problems about content to which he has famously contributed remain live ones–which seems dubious, for the reasons Robert Cummins and others have noted, namely, their desperate dependence on intuitions that are easily vulnerable to changing times, developments in empirical knowledge, and so on.

So predictions anyone? Who among the living and recently lost will be read a century from now as of more than historical interest? I’ll wager on Rawls, and, with less confidence, on Quine and Kripke. (I am more confident both Quine and Kripke will be studied as figures of historical interest at least.) I’ve activated the “comments” function on this one, and invite predictions.

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29 responses to “Which philosophers will be read in 100 years?”

  1. Well this be a little predictable, but I think Lewis will probably be on that list.

    I'm not entirely sure what it is to be read for more than historical interest. Is Einstein read nowadays for more than historical interest? Is Darwin? One reason that Lewis might not be read for non-historical reasons is that his followers will have incorporated and developed his important ideas so you can learn the state of the art without going back to the master.

    The linguists I talk to all read Montague, so his work seems to have some staying power. Whether that translates to influence among logicians and philosophers of language is hard to tell. He certainly won't be read widely within philosophy. But maybe in the future philosophy will be so fragmented that being widely read within a fragment is all you can look for.

  2. I'm not sure what "substantial interest among those outside philosophy" will mean in one hundred years. What, after all, was on the corpus for an Cambridge philosophy professor living in 1750? Hobbes? Or Ralph Cudworth? Surely not Locke.

    If the ontology of events, or truth and language, still arouses interest in the year 2101 — if there is a university standing in the year 2101 –then I'd guess Davidson will have a place on the syllabus. Not for any whole book he wrote — unlike Rawls, for instance — but for "On the Very
    Idea of a Conceptual Schema." And, I would hope, for one of the events essays — On the individuation of events would be my candidate. The difference between the fame of philosophers now and the fame of a philosopher like, say, Spinoza is that philosophers now survive by one or two essays — not some full fledged book.

    I can't see Rawls surviving for one hundred years, but I can't even understand him surviving for thirty — so I am not a fair judge.

  3. Having a book, and one that is pretty monumental and wide-ranging is probably pretty important (though not essential) for this kind of immortality. Rawls is a clear candidate. Among the living, I can see Derek Parfit – author of another monument – surviving for a century just for being the source of so many good puzzle cases in ethics.

  4. hmmm, no mention of Giles Deleuze? Last I checked he seemed to generating a whole industry of commentary…

  5. Why does it matter who will be read 100 years from now? Should the attention I give to say, L.E.J Brouwer, vary according to the probability assigned to his being relevant 100 years from now? In truth, I don't care much about whether Brouwer, Chomsky, Strawson, etc. are germane figures in future philsophical debates. What matters, rather, is that they mean something to me right now, in the present. About the future and whether who I study now will be an active part of it, I have no idea. But neither do you. So stop worrying about it.

  6. I think Alvin Plantinga will continue to have a long time influence on philosophy of religion. If nothing else the circle of Christian philosophers will keep his work alive.

  7. It is interesting that philosophical fame is treated by most as intraphilosophically determined. Of course, that's how philosophers like to think of themselves — contributing on problem x or y, and thus adding to the permanent and persisting canon on that problem. But canons are by and large retrospectively constituted rather than actually existing. To be sure, we can suspect that some figures like Plato may have such permanence so long as anyone studies philosophy. But any reflection shows that philosophers almost as a professional deformation underestimate their relation to their times, and thus to historical conditions that may pass. Kantianism provides a good example here. No one remembers the most brilliant and significant neo-Kantian in history — not Rawls! — Hermann Cohen, because the historical conditions for his importance disappeared. Similarly, we may suspect that Rawls's fate is linked to the project of the welfare state, and to the project of left liberalism — not absolutely, of course, but in some non-negligeable way. So the real difficulty in prediction is that any historically real prediction must implicate matters beyond philosophy. I even doubt that working on language or metaphysics (as opposed to politics, for example) leads to a relatively greater chance of transcending one's time. Of course, it's possible that some sectors are the discipline are historically and politically conditioned in some less immediate sense.

  8. XIX c. figures: "Peirce and Frege, Mill, Bentham, and Sidgwick, Hegel, Nietzsche, and perhaps Schopenhauer" — add Marx. How many of those were read by the philosophers on your obituary list? Technical philosophy seems to have expelled those kinds of writers, except for Sedgewick and Frege. Or am I wrong?

    But what people will read in the future will indeed be the the ambitious works with broad significance, rather than writers on technical questions (Quine, Kripke), I think.

    The Anglocentrism of your candidate list is stunning. Habermas, Foucault and Bourdieu, at least, should be on it, I think, and Gadamer if he's in the timeframe. In general the list assumes that the problematic dominant in contemporary Anglo-American philosophy will continue to be dominant, which I doubt. No one reads any of the many neo-Hegelians, absolute idealists, or neo-Kantians of the XIX-XX c. any more, or the once-influential "Ideologues" (Destutt de Tracy et al) of early XIX France.

    There is a difference between something which has a revolutionary impact on the philosophy of its own moment; something who provides a starting-point for later thinkers to build on (Frege, Peirce); and a finished work still readable a century later. The second and third categories are the ones remembered; many innovations which seem exciting within a certain problematic (e.g. neo-Kantianism) really aren't, once the tendency fades.

    From these points of view I think that Rawls is the best candidate. Nozick might survive in obnoxious subcultures.

    My own nomination for the philosophy of the future is "the philosophy of practice", represented by Toulmin, Bourdieu, Michel Meyer, Chaim Perelman, and perhaps even Foucault. It's possible to get a BA in philosophy at most of the best schools without having read any of these, and without having heard of at least two of them.

  9. Two brief observations on two of the above comments:

    (1) I think Sam is correct about the difficulty with predictions, because of philosophy's relationship to non-philosophical contexts, intellectual, economic, historical, and political.

    (2) Subject to the important caveat in (1), I'm dubious that Habermas or Gadamer will fare that well over the next century, though Gadamer has the better chance for intellectual reasons. Habermas is too philosophically insubstantial, and too derivative when he tries to be substantial, to last as more than a footnote to the Frankfurt School. Foucault I would bet on, but I hadn't been considering him only because he died nearly 20 years ago.

  10. One addendum: Zizka asks:

    "XIX c. figures: "Peirce and Frege, Mill, Bentham, and Sidgwick, Hegel, Nietzsche, and perhaps Schopenhauer" — add Marx. How many of those were read by the philosophers on your obituary list? Technical philosophy seems to have expelled those kinds of writers, except for Sedgewick and Frege. Or am I wrong?"

    Even if we exclude Gadamer, I think you are wrong. Peirce, Frege, Mill, Bentham, Sidgwick, and Marx are clearly parts of the philosophical canon throughout the English-speaking world–and so, too, are Hegel and Nietzsche in many places these days. Schopenhauer is under-appreciated in English-speaking philosophy, but perhaps the growing interest in Nietzsche in English-speaking philosophy will change that.

  11. But they're never *cited*…

  12. Let me retract that.

  13. I'm really out of touch by more than a decade. However, my occasional glances at journals doesn't convince me that I'm wrong, and some of my more recent contacts seem to say that everything before about 1950, and almost everything Continental, is historical and quaint.

    The people I run into who study Mark, Nietzsche, and Hegel are not in philosophy departments, and I do run into philosophy people who seem proud of the narrowness of their interests.

    But as I said, I'm not a good source.

  14. Umm…the relation between language and reality, the nature of meaning facts, the possibility of translation and interpretation, the relation between meaning and possibility, the relation between conceivability and philosophy, the relation between mind and body– "technical questions of no broad significance"?!?

  15. In passing…I wonder about the 20th century Japanese philosopher, some of whom, from what little I've seen in translation, had some very interesting things to say. Watsuji Tetsuro (who I haven't read) has a museum (see http://www.city.himeji.hyogo.jp/bungaku/) in his honor in Himeji–he may be read simply because of the building.

  16. Nishitani's book on Heidegger and Nietzsche (Religion and Nothingness) is the best thing I've read about either.

    I really should go back to the library I guess. But what I remember seeing is always at about three removes from the actual problem, often involving fanciful hypothetical questions, so that what you're talking about is important because it may or may not contribute to some bigger question, which in turn may or may not contribute to some still bigger question, which finally may or may not contribute e.g. to the mind-body problem. And it all looks very rigorous, precise and scientific, except that it all occurs within very narrow presuppositions about the mind-body problem.

    And yeah, in contrast to Hegel, Marx, or Nietzsche, or as far as that goes Plato, Locke, Descartes, Dewey, William James, or Adam Smith, it does seem narrow. Whitehead said something like this: there's an eternal tension between adequacy and rigor, which contemporary philosophy has decided in favor of a rigor which he called fake. And yeah, he said this ~50 years ago, but I think that it's still true; he was describing a transition in Anglo-American philosophy which has not been superceded.

  17. Limiting myself to those whose work was/is primarily in MEML, my guesses as to which 20C philosophers will be looked back on as the most important are Russell and (picking someone who is still alive now, at some risk of being accused of focussing on technical questions of no broad significance — though I'd disagree with the accusation) Kripke.

    Kripke starts at a disadvantage, relative to others toward the end of the century, because some of those others (like David Lewis) seem to have more of their students out there right now working through more-or-less their problems in roughly their way. (I should add: It's very much to Lewis's credit that he has so many great students out there in the profession.) Still, for the long run, Kripke's my guess.

  18. I have read Kripke's two little books. They did a great job at what they did, but they are important internally to specific discussions in the philosophy profession. Once the point has been made and accepted, will anyone want to read these books? He seems clearly to belong in my first to-be-forgotten group, the ladders to be kicked away who were important during some transition within a school or tendency, but not of interest once the point has been accepted. I think that same of Davidsons "On the very idea of a conceptual scheme"; when it came out maybe it was dynamite, but once the point has been accepted nobody needs to read it.

  19. I think Nagel might have been a bit optimistic to assume that Frege was *read* as opposed to cited.

  20. Karl Popper.

  21. T think d2 is right — Frege was a ladder to be kicked away. But he has an iconic, heroic value so he's on the list.

    As I remember, Husserl also studied under Frege. So someone who dislikes both analytic philosophy and phenomenology can blame Frege for both, saving a lot of effort that way.

  22. Not under. Colleagues, sort of.

  23. The interesting thing about the question of who will be read — which seems to have turned into who will be taught, a different matter — in one hundred years is that it brings up the deeper question of what philosophical projects have succeeded, and which have failed, in the 20th century.

    I think a good way of posing this question would be to use Sartre as an example.

    Sartre isn't much taught in US philosophy departments. He is in French philosophy departments. Now, if the major philosophical project of the twentieth century — to make philosophy a science — had succeeded, this would be a major sociological curiosity. They don't teach a different biology, or physics, in France than in the US. They don't even teach a radically different economics (although economics is, to my mind, a border case of a science). So what does it say about philosophy that there can be two utterly different philosophic canons?

    I think it says that the project — the one nursed by the Vienna circle, brought to the states by Carnap, and embraced by most Anglo-American philosophy departments — has utterly failed. That has interesting consequences for the reading of someone like Frege or Davidson. If they are merely ladders — if their essays are have the status of contributions to a body of knowledge that shows a direction, as one would assume is the case with the papers of a physicist — then surely the ladder metaphor is right. But if there is no direction, and if the contributions are simply the refinement of various tools which, outside of philosophy, have a place and function (I'm thinking of how set theory was used by the pioneers of computer science), but inside philosophy, get us no closer to the central questions (what is truth? what is being? what difference does language make? etc.)–then they aren't ladders to be thrown away. They are works to be studied.

    Of course, there is another model of "progress" –it is in aesthetics. It is that model that gives us those neat art history time lines. I suspect philosophy, as a discourse, is closer to art than to science.

  24. I think Rawls' work might well still hold a robust place a century from now in the curricula of philosophy and political science departments because I suspect that there will, even then, persist an institutionally entrenched hankering to systematically elaborate the conceptual underpinnings of an ideally functioning liberal democratic national or international political culture.

  25. I'm suprised that no one has thought to list Dennett. He discusses perennial issues, is a great writer, and will be a target for theists. His reputation will also benefit from the discussion of his work by biologists and cognitive scientists.

  26. it seems that the philosophers that are remember are the ones with grand overarching theories. (im gonna qualify this). Nearly all of the people that are cited (Husserl, Hume, Locke, Frege) had that. So i guess Kripke might lose out on those grounds. Im not dissing Saul, and i think the ideas will be taken in and assimilated, but i dont know if there is going to be a module on Kripke in 100 years. Whereas, i can see there being one on Lewis, Wittgenstien, or Quine. So if the question is who will have scholars in a hundred years time, i think Wittgenstein is the only certainty. If its a question about whose ideas are going to be remembered then the list will be more expansive, for instance, Paul Benacerraf and Cripsin Wright will both get a mention in modules on Phil Math i'd imagine, etc. Heres the qualification: Whats important to remember is that philosophy these days is very different from the past: the popularity of journals, the importance of shorter articles as opposed to a huge treatise, the preservation of imformation, etc. These factors will filter in too.

  27. I think that Bernard Williams will be remembered for how he articulated and engaged with the various sources of moral skepticism both within analytical philosophy and the broader culture. I think Ethics and the Limits of Philosophy will still be read.

  28. It's interesting to consider whom, precisely, is to be considered a philosopher. Many of the lists above appear to narrow their purview to those who sit comfortably inside the profession at large. Who in the 20th century will have changed the way humanity comprehends its abilities and place? I'd wager Chomsky will be on any such list, ahead of nearly all who are considered dyed-in-the-wool philosophers. [Can anyone argue that Chomsky has had less impact on theories of mind than Quine?] Perhaps also Marvin Minsky or Ed Witten… or someone thought of today as a "biologist", "conceptual artist" or even "music theorist".

  29. Frank Jackson, because he's so fun to read.

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