3 responses to “Human-to-Human Transmission of Bird Flu in Indonesia?”

1. Monty

   October 24, 2005 at 5:18 pm

   Having nothing to offer on the credibility of the cited website, I'll say the analysis seems mostly in-line with a previous reporting from Foreign Affairs (July/August 2005 issue)
   http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050701faessay84401-p0/laurie-garrett/the-next-pandemic.html

   Beginning on 'page 3:'
   "Understanding the risks requires understanding the nature of H5N1 avian flu specifically and influenza in general. Influenza originates with aquatic birds and is normally carried by migratory ducks, geese, and herons, usually without harm to them. As the birds migrate, they can pass the viruses on to domesticated birds — chickens, for example — via feces or during competitions over food, territory, and water. Throughout history, this connection between birds and the flu has spawned epidemics in Asia, especially southern China. Aquatic flu viruses are more likely to pass into domestic animals — and then into humans — in China than anywhere else in the world. Dense concentrations of humans and livestock have left little of China's original migratory route for birds intact. Birds that annually travel from Indonesia to Siberia and back are forced to land and search for sustenance in farms, city parks, and industrial sites. For centuries, Chinese farmers have raised chickens, ducks, and pigs together, in miniscule pens surrounding their homes, greatly increasing the chance of contamination: influenza can spread from migrating to domestic birds and then to swine, mutating and eventually infecting human beings.

   Ominously, as China's GDP grows, so do the expensive appetites of the country's 1.3 billion people, more of whom can afford to eat chicken regularly. Today, China annually raises about 13 billion chickens, 60 percent of them on small farms. Chicken farming is quickly morphing into a major industry, with some commercial poultry plants rivaling those in Arkansas and Georgia in scale — but lagging behind in hygienic standards. These factors favor rapid influenza evolution. By the close of the twentieth century, at least two new types of human-to-human flu spread around the world every year."

   (I strongly recommend reading the entire piece, especially the text immediately following what I've quoted.)

   It seems to me that, data integrity notwithstanding, the prevalence of members within familial groups indicate examples of bird-to-human transmission, not human-to-human transmission.

   From later in the same article:
   "Over the course of this brief but rapid evolution, the H5N1 virus developed in ways unprecedented in influenza research. It is not only incredibly deadly but also incredibly difficult to contain. The virus apparently now has the ability to survive in chicken feces and the meat of dead animals, despite the lack of blood flow and living cells; raw chicken meat fed to tigers in Thailand zoos resulted in the deaths of 147 out of a total of 418."

   Without knowing how long the virus can survive outside an infected host, it may very well be the case that humans, currently, are mere carriers of the bird-to-human strain. That seems the reasonable conclusion at this (early) point, but I'm no virulogist.

   Further recommended reading: 'The Human-Animal Link,'
   http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20050701faessay84403/william-b-karesh-robert-a-cook/the-human-animal-link.html
   from the same issue.

   Loading…

   Reply
2. Matt

   October 24, 2005 at 8:37 pm

   I've heard from several sources that there have been human-to-human transmissions in a few cases. So I think that this already is established. I've been following what this guy has been saying for a couple weeks, and his predictions about where it will turn up have been scarily accurate. And, I know a bit about anti-virals (which is how I found the site on Google–I googled one of the generic drugs that wasn't being pushed by Big Pharma and wasn't on the news, and up popped his site), and knows what he's talking about with them, as well. So, I've been keeping an eye on his site and the wires at

   http://news.yahoo.com/i/2552

   This morning I counted 19 bird flu stories that had come across the wires just today.

   One thing he's been saying is that there has to be underreporting of the extent of the spread of the virus (and he lists places where the virus should be, but hasn't been reported) because reports aren't fitting models correctly. Sure enough, in the last few days there are reports of many under-reports of cases from areas where he expected to find the virus.

   So, like Brian, I would really appreciate independent experts confirming what he has to say (and more important, what the real extent and upshot of this virus is). But some of it (human-to-human transmission) we already know is true, and the wires continue to confirm claims he makes. And he's not saying anything outrageous, either, frankly.

   Anyway, let's hope for the best; it's pretty scary right now!

   Matt

   Loading…

   Reply
3. Tyler Cowen

   October 25, 2005 at 7:11 am

   Henry Niman is a maverick but so far he has been more right than wrong. He is very smart and ahead of the curve. Most people in the know believe there is "weak" human-to-human transmission in Indonesia.

   Loading…

   Reply