You heard it here first (way back in December!):  Ted Cruz, the far right religious conservative from Texas, has won Iowa with about 27% of the vote.  Even more notable is Trump's weak 2nd place showing, barely defeating Senator Marco Rubio of Florida (about 24% to 22%–no polls had predicted such a strong showing for Rubio).   75% of Republican caucus goers in Iowa preferred someone other than Trump.   I suspect this means Trump is finished, though he may hang on a bit longer, though his ego is going to have a tough time with this humiliating result.  We can at least thank Trump for having destroyed Jeb Bush, who may get 2 or 3% of the Iowa vote when it's all over.

Meanwhile, in the actual contest between candidates who do not belong in an asylum, the 1970s Republican Hillary Clinton is neck and neck with the run-of-the-mill social democrat Bernie Sanders:  with about 85% of the vote, she is ahead by only a half a percentage point and her lead has been shrinking all evening.  I'd be delighted if Bernie pulls out a victory, but for it to be this close is already a victory for Sanders, and will secure his triumph in New Hampshire.  The real action will then be South Carolina and Nevada on the Democratic side.

Being an early riser, I'll have to wait until morning to see the final result!

UPDATE 2/2 7:30 AM:  So it's still a tie between Clinton and Sanders, with Clinton holding a very small lead of about a quarter of a percentage point.   As even The New York Times, the house organ for the prudent wing of the ruling class, acknowledges, this is a victory for Sanders, and the Clintons are nervous.   Meanwhile, here's Sanders's "victory" speech; open class war on behalf of the vast majority hasn't been waged like this in the U.S. since FDR.  Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump trailed Cruz by 3.5 percentage points, and only leads Rubio by about a point.  Rubio, just to be clear, is as much a deranged reactionary as the other two (maybe even more so than Trump), but unlike Trump and Cruz, he's better at keeping it under wraps.  So the longer Cruz and Trump continue in the campaign, the better for the Democrats, even if they nominate Clinton.

AND IN CASE YOU THOUGHT IT WASN'T A CIRCUS this story is amazing.