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An argument against closing lower schools (*not* universities)

Brian Leiter

This is interesting.  Universities serve an older population than schoolchildren, but one that is more likely than the younger kids to both get and transmit COVID-19.  (If that's incorrect, I welcome links in the comments.)  The article also makes the point that to actually be effective in stopping an epidemic, schools would have to be closed for months.  So far no one is talking about that, at least not that I've seen.

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8 responses to “An argument against closing lower schools (*not* universities)”

  1. Patrick Leland

    This appeared on March 4: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1

    "We further show that children are at similar risk of infection as the general population, though less likely to have severe symptoms; hence should be considered in analyses of transmission and control."

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  2. Clifford Sosis

    My thought FWIW: If a single student in a dorm tests positive for COVID-19, they're going to have to quarantine the dorm. Chances are, given the close quarters, everybody in that dorm is probably going to get infected. That will be a logistical disaster for a college or university. Given the social habits of college students, it's probably going to spread to more than one dorm before it is detected. If you have any students with underlying health conditions, they are going to be in trouble. Same thing with faculty and staff. Not sure if a university would be on the hook for that, legally? Might be morally. Doing online instruction avoids all of these headaches assuming things peter out by next fall. Seems like a no brainer to me (and I like being in the classroom).

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  3. Brian Leiter

    Given that not all household contacts get sick it’s unlikely all dorm residents would. But I don’t disagree with your bottom line

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  4. Jamin Asay

    Primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong have been closed since the beginning of February, and will re-open at the earliest on April 20, though teachers' unions are calling for longer delays and re-opening only in stages:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/education/article/3074514/coronavirus-hong-kong-secondary-schools-should-reopen?fbclid=IwAR2YnMwjT7zqr3eyh1HD2yRfTvmSvk5Wdox-T3avd0x7qv8FC0AKpnVnzp4

    Containment measures seem to be working in Hong Kong and Macau (which have closed schools) and Singapore (which hasn't), but *which* of the many containment measures are most effective is well beyond my ken. At the University of Hong Kong, we had one week of in-person instruction, but then went into on-line mode, which is now official for the rest of the term. The social costs of closing schools in the US is very different, of course, to what it means for Hong Kong. Here's a portrait of online education in Hong Kong right now:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/what-can-americans-learn-from-hong-kongs-unplanned-experiment-online-learning-during-coronavirus-180974331/

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  5. Matthew

    Here’s an interesting UK government literature review on school closures during pandemics (from 2014):
    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/316203/School_Closures_Evidence_review.pdf

    In fact the whole set of associated literature reviews is interesting:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-the-evidence-base-underpinning-the-uk-influenza-pandemic-preparedness-strategy

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  6. Robert Allen

    Please someone tell me why this isn’t a fit medical response:

    1. Allow symptom-impervious CV carriers to go about their business (e.g. senior year of high-school and softball).
    2. Tell CV vulnerable to self-quarantine, e.g., elderly and diseased. To stay away from events such as graduation ceremonies and softball games
    3. Leave President and his administration alone to address issues of testing and vaccine development.
    4. Along with 3, tamp down media coverage and/or put CV statistics into proper perspective, comparing CV numbers to those of other infectious diseases, which did not arouse anywhere NEAR the same level of public concern (e.g. swine flu during the last Democrat administration).

    In other words, explain to me why I shouldn't be sitting here resentfully thinking that the suspension and looming termination of my daughter's senior year of high-school, by Michigan's loud-mouth, Democrat Governor, is an intended harm of one more left-wing attempt to drive President Trump from office and hurt the 'deplorables' like me who voted for him. Keep in mind, however, that I read left-wing bloggers, such as Robert Paul Wolff, suggest using CV to that very (evil) political end.

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  7. Brian Leiter

    A few thoughts:

    Ohio's Republican Governor Mike DeWine has been one of the most proactive about closures and social distancing, including for schools. Those state officials who have been proactive are responding to reasonable advice from medical and public health professionals who, in turn, are looking to the experience of countries that have managed to control their caseloads.

    While young people are less likely to get seriously ill (although some do), they are quite capable of transmitting disease to those who may get seriously ill. The only way to protect the most vulnerable is for almost everyone to alter their behaviors.

    The issue with existing coronavirus statistics is that they don't tell the truth because of severe undertesting in the U.S. Comparisons to flu are meaningless, because flu is less deadly and because tens of millions of people have immunity to it: no one has immunity to this new virus, which is why it spreads expontentially where unchecked.

    It does seem to me you're the one who is interpreting these events through a partisan, political lens. I suggest you follow Dr. Gottlieb on twitter, to whom I linked earlier today. He was Trump's FDA head. He knows this is serious and retweets a lot of sensible information.

    I also have a high school senior and a college senior, and the disruption for them is unfortunate, but I am glad both are now home and neither is at school. I suspect you'll be glad too over the next few weeks. Good luck!

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  8. Robert Allen

    Yep, that's the one hole in my conspiracy theory, which has been bugging me since I went on an information gathering rampage upon the aforementioned disruption. Trust me, if it wasn't for her softball, prom, and graduation ceremony- at which she was to give a speech- I'd just pray for those afflicted and get an early start on my garden. I'm not big on leaving my house to begin with.

    Thank you for the prompt, informative, and empathetic response. Please tell your graduates congrats from the Allens.

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