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Why did the Democrats do relatively well: the Michigan experience

Brian Leiter

A longtime reader in Michigan shared these interesting observations: 

Democratic (both in the party affiliation and strict senses) politicians did particularly well in Michigan.

  1. All state-wide offices (Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State) went to the Democratic candidates.
  2. Democrats have a (narrow) majority in the State House and State Senate.  This is the first time that Democrats control the Legislature and the Governor’s office in ~4 decades. 
  3. A couple of Congressional districts thought to be toss-ups or Republican leaning went Democratic.  This includes the historically conservative Grand Rapids area. 
  4. Two major voter-initiated proposals to modify the State Constitution passed easily.  The nationally prominent one is modification of the constitution to preserve abortion access.  The other is likely just as important.  Rational voting access is now protected by the state constitution.  This step was taken to prevent our presently Republican dominated legislature from enacting more voting restrictions. 

How did this happen?  Three major factors:

  1. In the last general election, a voter-initiated proposal to remove redistricting from the legislature succeeded.  The resulting redistricting by a bipartisan citizens commission produced more competitive districts. 

  2. The abortion issue and the unpopularity of banning abortion access had a lot of traction.

  3. The Republican slate had a lot of rather poor candidates, a direct result of Trumpism – general Republican foolishness.  The losing gubernatorial candidate was extensively bankrolled by the DeVos family and had no real experience of government at any level.  At least one Republican stalwart here publicly denounced the Republican candidates as the least qualified slate ever and quite a few other conventional Republicans must have felt similarly. 

My overall take is that the Republicans in Michigan took a beating and the results diminish their long-term prospects.

  1. The playing field is now more level without the legislature putting its thumb on the scales and voting access restrictions are going to be much harder to enact.

Divided government over the last 4 years produced significant gridlock.  With the Democrats controlling state government, some issues that public here finds really annoying are likely to be addressed adequately.

Curious to hear from well-informed readers about the results in other states and whether similar or different factors were at play.

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4 responses to “Why did the Democrats do relatively well: the Michigan experience”

  1. Craig Duncan

    New York State had the opposite experience of Michigan; four congressional seats now occupied by Democrats went to Republicans. That may prove soon to be the deciding factor giving the House to Republicans, alas. There has been a lot teeth-gnashing about the Democrats blowing their own recent redistricting process, failing to make it more favorable for Dems. But I doubt whether that explains the bulk of the difference in the New York and Michigan results.

    Instead I think the better explanation of the NYS result in fact supports your Michigan correspondent's view. Unlike Michigan, there is little risk of New York banning or severely restricting abortion. So that issue was much less salient, and as a result, much less motivating to Dems.

    Secondly, and again unlike Michigan, there was no crazy MAGA candidate running in New York for statewide office. The Republican candidate for governor — while still objectionable, like any Republican these days — was much saner than Michigan's Republican candidate. So Michigan Dems had much more motivation to prevent a catastrophe at the governor level then New Yorkers had. (Relatedly, MI Dems were more postively motivated to vote for Whitmer than Hochul, I suppose, the former being a much more popular figure.)

    In short, serious worries over abortion and Republican candidate quality helped the Dems in MI, but not much at all in NY. And as far as I can tell, the generalizes to other states.

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  2. A Sharon

    Here in Massachusetts we now have one party rule. Everywhere you look there are Democrats in charge. Even moderate Republicans here suffer from the association with the national Republican brand. As long as the GOP remains associated with the MAGA crowd they will continue to be marginalized here. Looking ahead, party affiliation plays only a small part in what is looming. 61% of registered voters in MA are unenrolled/independent. Only 29% of the people declare themselves a member of the Democratic Party. Progressive ideals on social issues have always been popular here, no doubt because of the high level of education. Where the coming schism lies is in fiscal policy. Massachusetts has always been a safe haven for the upper classes. Favorable tax policy for business, nimby housing policies, erosion of support for large public infrastructure spending. Some often compare Boston to San Francisco. But, Boston is as conservative as it gets when it comes to local economic policy. This portends a coming storm between those seeking better support for the lower classes and the well to do. Like many rich American cities, the middle classes are becoming extinct. More people are leaving the state than coming here, especially the young. Working remotely erases the need to be in Boston proper. They can find more affordable housing just over the border in NH and Maine, or in Texas. Our universities ensure a steady flow of students year after year but none are settling here. The number of retirees is increasing and many of those will be moving to Florida to take advantage of their highly priced homes and avoid taxes. Minorities are assuming more and more leadership positions in local government, setting up a fight between the largely white affluent establishment and those demanding economic change. The political conflict coming will not be described as Democrat versus Republican. It will be rich versus poor.

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  3. Howard

    I believe Zeldin's emphasis on crime hurt Democrats. And Zeldin was in fact close to Trump he just was quiet about it..
    I think he whipped up some rebellious MAGA sentiment in the districts the Dems lost.
    Plus New York is very cosmopolitan and exposed to the currents in national politics.
    Plus Hochul represented a letting up of the machine like control Cuomo had on the state.
    This loss might not have happened with Cuomo in charge- other stuff maybe

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  4. Rollo Burgess

    In addition to factors cited above, Gretchen Whitmer's successful gubernatorial campaign was effective at raising money and significantly outspent Tudor Dixon's campaign in the state ad buy.

    See these 2 links:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/ad-war-stands-top-races-governor-rcna49794

    https://eu.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/28/gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-campaign-cash-fundraising/69598833007/

    It seems quite plausible that high intensity advertising by a well-known incumbent governor could also have assisted other Dem candidates in Michigan.

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