A reader writes:

“Your talk about an upcoming draft is on the money. I would like to offer another perspective to you. My 8 years in the National Guard and Army Reserves will help illustrate why a draft draws near.

“In 1995 I enlisted in the Illinois National Guard. At the time of my enlistment, there was a slim to zero chance of being ‘mobilized’ (re: called into active service and deployed outside the United States). A lot of people enlisted in the Guard because in Illinois a soldier does not pay any tuition at an in-state school. The additional GI Bill money made us the most highly compensated weekend workers. No one took seriously the possibility that they would be sent to war.

“A few of the guys (it was an all-male unit at the time) had served in the first Gulf War. However, they did so voluntarily. In Illinois, the entire unit has to be mobilized before any soldier sees combat.

“In 2001 I graduated Officer Candidate School. About 35 to 40 new officers were minted that day. At the time, there was a slim chance that any of us would be mobilized.

“However, all of my classmates who did not leave the military have been sent, are being sent, or are already in Iraq.

“Two of the three previous National Guard units I served with were deployed to Iraq.

“The paradigm shift is amazing. Before, a soldier in the National Guard or Army Reserves had almost no chance of fighting anything other than a flood or other natural disaster. Now no one feels safe. The times have changed, although people on the outside of the military are having a hard time seeing why.

“Now that the reserve component of the military is no longer safe from going to war, fewer people will enlist in the reserves. The supply of men and women is drying up. The general public will be tapped very soon.”