This important new study–which has already been featured in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last two days–ought to set the terms of the debate about so-called "tort reform" if facts are to have any bearing on the policy decisions.  The authors–my colleagues Bernard Black and Charles Silver, Illinois law professor David Hyman, and Columbia law professor Bill Sage–include three of the leading scholars nationally in the health law field, and they hold well-known views across the political spectrum (though tilting, overall, to the right).  What they found in studying malpractice claims in Texas over a 15-year period is stunning:

Recent spikes in medical malpractice premiums in Texas were not caused by rising payouts on claims or rising jury verdicts, according to a study released today by the Center on Lawyers, Civil Justice, and the Media at The University of Texas at Austin School of Law….

Using a unique, comprehensive dataset maintained by the Texas Department of Insurance that includes all insured closed medical malpractice claims for 1988-2002, the authors found that, adjusted for general inflation and population, claim rates, payments, total costs, and jury verdicts were all stable. Only defense costs rose significantly, at just over 4% per year. Their findings, with these adjustments, are as follows.

• The number of large paid claims (>$25,000 in 1988 dollars) per year was roughly constant. The number of small paid claims (<$25,000 in 1988 dollars) declined sharply.
• Mean and median payouts per large paid claim were $528,000 and $200,000, respectively, in 2002 and were roughly constant over time.
• Roughly 6% of large paid claims involved payouts over $1 million, with little time trend in this percentage.
• In 2000-2002, there was an average of 4.6 paid claims per 100 practicing Texas physicians per year, down from 6.4 paid claims per 100 practicing physicians per year in 1990-1992.
• The total number of closed claim files averaged 25 per 100 practicing Texas physicians per year in 2000-2002. Of these, about 80% involved no payout.
• In 2002, payouts to patients were about $515 million, while Texas health care spending was about $93 billion, so payouts on insured claims equaled 0.6% of health care spending.
• Mean and median jury verdicts in trials won by patients were $889,951 and $300,593, respectively, in 2002 and showed no significant time trend.
• The sum of payouts and defense cost rose by about 1% per year. Defense costs, which grew 4.4% annually, drove this increase.

The article will be published in the Journal of Empirical Legal Studies.