It seems clear the coronavirus pandemic is going to trigger a recession in the U.S. and probably globally, barring a sudden change in the course of its spread.   As we know from Achen and Bartels, voters often hold incumbents responsible for bad events, especially if there is any narrative supporting such responsibility (and sometimes even when there isn't).   All this bodes ill for Trump, which is maybe the only good news in this impending disaster.  

We also know that the rate of death from coronavirus is higher the older the infected person is; in China, it topped 10% for those in their 80s, and was almost 10% for those in their 70s, for example.  (The percentages may be lower if it turns out there are many infected people in these age groups with no or mild symptoms.)  We have a lot of septuagenarians running for President, who seem very good bets to acquire coronavirus before the average citizen given how much time they spend shaking hands and schmoozing with LOTS of people everywhere.  What will happen if, say, Sanders is incapacitated for weeks due to infection?  And if Sanders, who is on track to win the Democratic nomination, were to succumb to the virus in the months ahead, what then?

And what about Trump, who loves his rallies?   He's less of a glad-hander, but he too is surely inserting himself in the thick of exposure at these rallies.  If Trump were to succumb, then Pence would likely be the Republican standard-bearer, and not a very effective one:  this is the guy who could not get re-elected governor of Indiana, after all.

In short, this new pandemic will have some significant effects on politics in this benighted nation; how dramatic these effects are remains to be seen.