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    The McMaster Department of Philosophy has now put together the following notice commemorating Barry: Barry Allen: A Philosophical Life Barry…

Hospitalization rates and death rates per 100,000 people for the vaccinated and unvaccinated

Brian Leiter

The NYT has produced a useful chart showing the relative rates of hospitalizations and deaths for COVID based on vaccination status.  In Illinois, for example, the rate of hospitalization for COVID for the vaccinated is about 1 in 5,000, while for the unvaccinated, it is about 1 in 100.  The death rate from COVID for the vaccinated is about 1 in 20,000,  while for the unvaccinated it is about 1 in 1,400.   There is variation, but in all the states, the vaccinated fare much, much better than the unvaccinated.

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4 responses to “Hospitalization rates and death rates per 100,000 people for the vaccinated and unvaccinated”

  1. T

    I don't question the general point — obviously vaccinated people are doing better than non-vaccinated ones, and there are clear indications of that in where most cases are occurring (and were clear from data on nursing homes in February). But the way this data is presented annoys me: the first table covers all hospitalizations "since vaccination began". But clearly the bulk of those hospitalizations are from last winter when only a small fraction of people were vaccinated. So the fact the hospitalization numbers for unvaccinated people are higher already follows from the fact that there were more unvaccinated people per chance to get infected over that period. The second table at least adjusts for average vaccination over that period, but the problem that there were more chances to get infected in the winter when vaccinations were low remains. If they just used the data for the last two months, it would be far more informative.

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  2. TWIV

    To amplify something in T's comment: as counter intuitive as this may seem it would be good to see that 100% of people who are hospitalized with COVID-19/have died from COVID-19 are vaccinated. That is because this would reflect a situation in which all, or nearly all, people are vaccinated.

    To put this into context somewhat, when I first saw the leaked slide deck from CDC I was alarmed by the fourth slide because it includes a chart showing that the percentage of vaccinated people dying from COVID-19 increased from 3.1% in April 2021 to 15.1% in May 2021. Of course this *may* be due to some new variant that evades vaccines (or waning protection, among other options) but the significantly more plausible explanation is simply that many more people were vaccinated in May relative to April.

    Unrelated to that, a plug for additional reliable media sources regarding SARS CoV-2 and COVID-19: This Week in Virology (https://www.microbe.tv/). The clinical updates are especially useful for the layperson (like me).

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  3. John Turri

    The NYT indicates that its analysis "generally" involves data up until "mid-June or July". Those who have kept up on data from countries elsewhere that are further along in their vaccination campaign (e.g. Israel) will likely view this as a noteworthy limitation in relation to confident predictions about the ratios moving forward (or even, to some extent, the intervening weeks).

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  4. Eric

    T's point is absolutely correct. The vaccine is effective at reducing hospitalizations but people should not be mislead into thinking it is as effective as suggested by the NYT table.

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